Who's Next?....

If you had asked me if three airlines could fail so quickly a week ago, I probably would have said no.

But, it's becoming obvious with oil over $100/barrel that not only are airlines in a world of hurt, but unlike previous collapses, there aren't a whole lot of investors willing to put money into a potential turnaround.

So... who's next?

Here's my short list:

• Skybus. Oh, wait, they already shut down last night...
  
  
• Virgin America. Yes, I know that everyone thinks Richard Branson has endless pockets, but he's a minority investor, and can't legally put anymore money into VX. He could lobby American investors to do so, but I think it would be a hard sell when you look at what's happened in the past week. Plus, Virgin's business plan seems to bank on the fact that they're going to be able to steal business travelers. Guess what? Lots of companies are putting the screws on business travel right now....
  
  
• Mesa. It would be poetic justice considering Ornstein's role in Hawaii's unraveling. Their cash position is questionable, they're stuck with way too many 50 seat RJ's, and they stand to lose a court case filed by Aloha which goes to trial in October. Delta just announced they're canceling a contract with Mesa for 50 seaters, and United has already had to backfill with Skywest to make up for Mesa's inability to perform 50 seater flying per their contract for flying as United Express. Mesa has said they plan to fight Delta, but I don't think they'll win. Even if they win, they lose. If they lose one of these two contracts, they're screwed....
  
  
• Frontier. Sad to say, they're in pretty much the same position Aloha was -- playing third chair in DEN, and caught between Southwest and United... The few attempts they've made to break free of their dependence on DEN have failed -- a focus city in LAX, and point to point flight to Mexico from DFW, BNA, and IND. Plus, they just did a whole fleet modernization in the past two years, and between fuel, UA, and WN, they're in a world of hurt trying to pay for all those new Airbii....
  
  
• Midwest. They're the elephant in the room when Northwest started talking about capacity cuts... Add to that renewed talk of a Delta-Northwest merger, and, well... they're the elephant in the room.
  
  
• Airtran. Their cash position is shrinking, and they don't have a lot of furniture to burn. Like Frontier, they're also a one-trick pony and have lots of new Boeings to pay for. They've tried to be a success other than ATL, but aside from some limited success at Orlando, Atlanta's where they'll live and die. And, if Delta-Northwest does happen, it will get uglier at DL. Add a dash of NWA's ruthlessness to DL's fortress hub, and it'll be ugly to say the least.
  

That's my list, in no certain order and with no degree of certainty or inside information...

I didn't list ExpressJet, but considered it. They seem to be striking a balance between private branded flying and contract flying. Getting more business at United and Delta certainly helps shore things up a bit.... so I don't see them being in too much trouble for the time being.

Also note that Midwest and Airtran have some probability hinging on something happening between Delta and Northwest. Something tells me it's more likely to happen this time around. You've got major partners Air France/KLM sitting in the catbird seat, and I suspect they're already a little pissed about not getting Alitalia on the terms they wanted to...

I've just noticed that Holly Hegeman has posted almost the same list on her Titanic watch in PlaneBusiness. It probably looks like I wrote this after reading PBB, but I didn't. She's included Sun Country and Spirit, and I've included Midwest.